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In order for barrier islands to persist during periods of sea level rise (SLR), they must migrate landward to maintain their elevations relative to sea level. The ability of an individual island to effectively migrate is controlled by complex interactions between many parameters including relative SLR rate, sediment supply rate, underlying stratigraphy, and back-barrier deposition. We are using a morphological behavior model (GEOMBEST) to characterize past evolution and to explore potential future responses of barrier islands in the Virginia Coast Reserve under changing SLR conditions. Specifically, we focus on how variability in back-barrier environment and underlying stratigraphy may influence barrier island behavior.

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